" What goes up must come down unless cherry pickers stay around"
Here I am a poor man, unable to really trade that much. But i think stocks markets are very very exciting. Whenever i enter the market, i will be extremely nervous. Worried i will suffer loss to my hard-earning money. So far things are good, i am in the black and i do hope my red will come soon. yes i mean it.
As i read through the news and bullish sentiments, i can't help but feel that it is too amazing. With oil price pushing through, i can't but wonders how did we do it?
We just came out of recession faster than the rate we enter.
Theoretically we took abt 9 months to dip and 6 to 7 months to recover...almost fully. I meant by the stock price and the start of bullish run...is it amazing?
I feel a correction should come near feb/march. To some, they might tell me. "Bro why think so much, you like then buy lor"
In stocks, i feel we can never study/know enough nor know too little. At the back of my mind, i have keep the correction-detection on.
For this week, Hoe leong will go strong. SPH too. Ezra. Noble should be continuing its run together with Golden agriculture.
let's see.
Cherry pickers are the best indication of true bull stocks!
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4 comments:
Hi, I'm Hubert, Myrna's friend. I am also of the opinion that a correction will be coming in the next 2-3 weeks. However I maintain that we are in a long-term bear market. The low point was reached after a wave down from the peak of Oct 07 to Mar 09 which took about 17 months( not 9 months like what u said). We have bounced up for about 10 months now which is about 61.8% of the duration of the first wave, an important fibonacci level.
Anyway, take a look at these useful sites on the market.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp
http://createwealth8888.blogspot.com/
I don't know if you will agree with me on this one, but here are my opinions regarding the markets :
1- People move prices. Prices do not move themselves. Because reading humans is an art and not a science, no one can predict the market ups and downs with certainty but only with probabilities. The real market movers are the big players. 'Small fries' like most of us only can follow where the big money is moving.
2-All you need is an edge. This is why we have to endlessly study the market as much as we can. The edge will change over time. If you do not know your currently edge and do not have a plan on entering and exiting the market, might as well not enter at all. Entry and exit are the only things you can learn to control. You cannot control the movement of up and down.
3-Trading is a business. There are always going to be costs, including losses. If you can't handle losses, cannot afford to lose hard earned money, can't sleep while your position is open overnight/over the weekend, then don't enter. Waiting is always ok. Trading is about reducing risk 1st, profits last. If you are investing, then that's another story.
4-There are ways that you can profit consistently from a seemingly random movement of the market. Fibonacci is one of ways to map out and read the random movement, but it must be taken with a pinch of salt and caution. The oil market is really not for beginners IMO since it only follows Fibonacci consistently on a monthly/quarterly chart.
5-Too many common people are entering the markets at this moment, that's why its attempting to go up but seemingly failing. They don't have the power to sustain price action movement to match the market expectancy. It will keep falling if people keep talking about it. The big players have not moved into the market yet. I don't see them daring to make the move at all, maybe until april. I will stay out until less people talk about it. This seems to hold true in my experience.
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